In 2002 the Elbe river was hit by a 100 year flood of high socio-economic impact in both the Czech Republic and Germany. Following this flood, the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe River (ICPER) issued a hydrological modelling study in the framework of the Action Plan for the flood protection in the Elbe river basin on the impact of retention polders, dyke-shifts and reservoirs on discharge in the Elbe river.

The study that FLOODS of the JRC has carried out with LISFLOOD is based on the 2002 Elbe floods and comprised two main aspects

• what would have been the impact of planned reservoirs for the Saale tributary on the flood peaks in 2002, and
• what would have been the potential effect of 5 specific polders and dyke shifts on the discharges during the 2002 floods

Results showed that for the main river Elbe the impact of the polders and dyke shifts would have been more effective than having the planned reservoirs in the Saale tributary in place.

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Study on the ODER river basin

In July 1997, dramatic flooding occurred in the Oder Basin, covering parts of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Germany. In close cooperation with the water authorities of Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic, the LISFLOOD model has been set up, calibrated, and validated for the flood events of 1977, 1985, and 1997.
Several scenarios have been evaluated with LISFLOOD, such as the effects of flood defence measures and also of expected future trends of climate and land use change.
The study has demonstrated that the proposed measures for flood control by the International Oder Commission lead to a significant improvement and reduction of flood risk in the Oder catchment, especially for downstream reaches.
Historic land use changes show an increase in forested and urban areas between 1780 and 1995, which hydrologically are balancing out each other in terms of discharge. It has been shown that the use of flood forecasting in reservoir management can also reduce flood risk downstream.
Finally, it is expected that urban growth will slightly increase flood risk in the next 30 years.

Contact person: Ad De Roo