Legend
00 UTC
12 UTC

Description
Map showing gauging stations where the forecasts are post-processed in order to

• 1. minimize the deviance between simulated and measured discharge in real-time and
• 2. to estimate the predictive uncertainty

The real-time observations are provided by the European Terrestrial Network for River Discharge (ETN-R). On the right the probability of exceeding two thresholds (MHQ and MQ) versus lead-time is shown. The MHQ (shown on the top) is defined as the average yearly maximum value (i.e. from a series of daily discharge data the maximum value per year is selected and the mean of the resulting series of maxima is calculated), whereas the MQ simply means the average of all the discharge values. Therefore the MQ values indicate the discharge under "normal" conditions and the MHQ values correspond to peak discharges which occur every one or two year in the long term average.